Thursday, August 30, 2007

Thompson Announces (the date he'll announce)

Got the e-mail an hour and a half hour ago, An Important Announcement from Friends of Fred Thompson:


Dear Friends,

On September 6, 2007, Fred Thompson will be announcing his intention to run for President of the United States with a webcast available to millions at www.imwithfred.com. The launch of the video will be followed by a five-day campaign tour through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. On the evening of the 6th, there will also be a National House Party, during which there will be a conference call with Fred.

We enter this campaign in a strong position. Fred is consistently near the top in the polls, and conservatives across the country have put together the closest thing to a draft in recent presidential campaign history in an effort to bring about this day. The next few weeks will only serve to build upon those efforts, with house parties, visits to the early primary states, and a homecoming in Lawrenceburg, TN on the 15th. To view the dates and locations of Fred's bus tour, please click here, and check back soon for more information on attending one of these events.

By announcing via webcast, Fred is able to take his consistently mainstream conservative message directly to the voters, who are already responding to that message with a strong upwelling of grassroots support. The webcast and the following campaign tour will play to Fred’s strengths, a consistent record of conservatism, his ability to clearly spread his message, and his ability to work with and connect with Americans from all walks of life. Be apart of this historic occasion by signing up to host or attend a house party today.

Sincerely,

Bill Lacy
Manager, Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.


Google-ing after reading the e-mail has led me to learn the "professional" bloggers have known this since this afternoon. Reaction is mixed which I think is deserved. It's sort of a non-event.

And I'm actually a bit disappointed. Last night I started thinking that if he didn't announce soon, it was going to serious cast doubt on how much I wanted to continue supporting him. ("Show people you are serious, already!") So, with regard to that, the fact he's finally going to be an official candidate: "Wahoo!" and "about time!".

I don't like the timing he chose though. At all.

There is a (Chris Wallace hosted, none-the-less) Republican Debate scheduled for the 5th. Rumors/announcements were even made that Thompson would attend it. Now he's apparently ducking it though. Why not announce Labor day and ride the announcement into the debate? Thompson's still my #1 hope for '08. It just feels a little weak is all.

(Also debate-related and disappointing, the Republican CNN/YouTube debate has been pushed back to November.)

This means once Thompson announces we'll have to wait three whole weeks to actually seem him engage other candidates in a debate. Annoying. Disappointing. And I certainly hope Fred shows up on the 27th and absolutely dazzles them. As a supporter, I'm expecting big things from an extra three weeks of prep time. Please Fred, don't disappoint!.

Update:

It dawns on me that September 6th is an even worse day to announce that I even initially realized. The Thompson campaign wants people to have house parties on the 6th from 7:30 - 9:00PM on the 6th. Your average American Joe is decidedly not available then as the NFL regular season kicks off at 8:30PM.

Fred - I'm pulling for you. I really am. But announcing a day after a Republican debate people claimed you'd attend and on the night of the kick off of the NFL season? Com'on!

2 comments:

David J Boehm said...

Fred has been dogged by this late announcement. Rumor is he's had major staff turnover. He's in serious trouble right now because he may have waited "too late."

The reason he isn't participating in the debate Sept 5th is because he isn't prepared.

Really, the situation Fred is in is very scary for all the candidates involved including Fred. Fred has set a bar that is very high for himself because of all the delays. The result will be a big deflation if he misses with little or no time to recover. The result would be a crash and burn.

On the flip side, as Fred pulls a "Babe Ruth" type pointing to the outfield wall, if he hits the home run there, Fred will carry huge momentum through the primaries and provide a strong base for the general election.

I believe that Fred will not hit the home run. Despite Fred's preparation and knowledge, nothing will prepare him for the tough shelled warriors on the stage.

The candidates were all very unpolished during the first few debates. Thompson will not be buffed and polished but rather raw and clumsy.

The magic Guiliani performs on stage is simply unparalleled by other candidates, but even Guiliani did not start with magic. Instead, he stumbled earlier and has since recovered.

The only thing Fred can hope to bounce his way is Romney and Huckabee piling on Guiliani, causing him to stumble. If Guiliani stumbles and Fred delivers a great performance, it could be Fred's election...but if Guiliani dances circles around Thompson, I think its close to time on finding the fork.


(Dave was very tired and yet still intrested while researching Fred Thompson tonight. It may not make much logic sense or seem sporadic, but is makes sense in Dave's head.)

kazoolist said...

Dave,

I generally agree with your assessment, although perhaps I'm a bit more optimistic.

I don't think this will amount to Thompson announcing "too late." Without formally announcing, I think he already has pretty good name recognition among likely GOP primary voters and a fair amount of funding. He's also already regularly among the top two, three, or four GOP candidates in polls.

I do agree the stakes are going to be high though. If he does really well over the next three weeks, including his first debate appearance, I think it's his too lose. Anything but "really well" and I think he's in a lot of trouble though.

As for Giuliani's debating "magic", I have to disagree. I only have two memorable moments from the the entirely of the GOP debates to date. Both do involve Giuliani, both neither is "magic."

The first was the Ron Paul exchange with Giuliani about if US foreign policy caused 9/11. (Ron Paul's position was more complicated than that, but that's how Giuliani took it on and the press ran with it.)

The second was the lightning incident where lightning interfered with Giuliani's microphone while he answered a question about abortion.

For as much as the first debate moment may have helped Giuliani, the later certainly helped concrete how out of step Giuliani's abortion position is with mine (and with moral/logical consistency, for that matter.)

In any event, I think it's Fred's to lose. I'm disappointed with his announcement timing, but I really hope he doesn't lose it. I think America needs him come January 20, 2009.