Sunday, September 02, 2007

(Republican) '08 Primary Schedule

I've been working on coming up with some '08 primary predictions and as part of that wanted to figure out exactly when the different states where holding their primaries. I had a heck of a time trying to figure that out.

I started with Vote Smart's list but it was very outdated. Wikipedia's list was pretty good though I wanted have a secondary source. For that secondary source I used Green Paper's notes and then the National Conference of State Legislature's list. In the couple spots where it appeared there may have been discrepancies I tried to resolve them by searching the news, and ultimately I believe Wikipedia's list was just about fully accurate.

Anyway, in case anyone else is looking for this information, I'm publishing it here. And, FYI, is likely to change between now and January '08.

Also, my list has an extra column called "Influence". This is just an index I put together balancing # of delegates with how early the state votes. It's certainly not anything official, but it is helpful for me in determining the states for which I want to bother making predictions. Just for reference, there are 500 "influence points" total.

Finally, one last important note - a bunch of states are in the list twice. That's because they are deciding how to allocate a subset of their delegates on two different dates. (Trying to figure out the process by which the votes actually turn into delegate allocations is also a heck of a matter to try to figure out... [and a matter I leave as an exercise for the reader. :D]).

In any event, here are the current (tentative) dates for Republican '08 Presidential Primaries:

Early States

Wyoming (A)01/05/081210I think WY will ultimately go to being no earlier than 1/22. Curiously, the parties seem more upset with FL and SC than Wyoming
Iowa01/14/084130I think IA may move earlier if WY does not move later
South Carolina 01/19/084725Parties want SC to move to a later date
New Hampshire 01/22/082415NH will likely move earlier if other states don't move later
Florida 01/29/0811435Parties want FL to move to a later date
Maine 02/02/082110

Super Duper Tuesday

Alabama 02/05/08485
Arizona 02/05/085310
Arkansas 02/05/08345
California 02/05/0817345
Colorado 02/05/084610
Connecticut 02/05/08305
Delaware 02/05/08182.5
Georgia 02/05/087215
Illinois 02/05/087015
Minnesota 02/05/08415
Missouri 02/05/085810
New Jersey 02/05/085210
New York 02/05/0810125
North Dakota 02/05/08265
Oklahoma 02/05/08425
Tennessee 02/05/085510
Utah 02/05/08365
West Virginia (A)02/05/08182.5

The Rest

Louisiana 02/09/084610
Washington (A)02/09/08185
District of Columbia 02/12/08195
Maryland 02/12/08375
Virginia 02/12/086312.5
Washington (B)02/19/08195
Wisconsin 02/19/084010
Michigan 02/26/086110
Hawaii 03/02/08205
Massachusetts 03/04/08435
Ohio 03/04/088815
Rhode island 03/04/08202.5
Texas 03/04/0814025
Vermont 03/04/08172.5
Mississippi 03/11/08385
Kansas 04/01/08395
Pennsylvania 04/22/087410I think PA will move their date to 2/12
Indiana 05/06/08575
North Carolina 05/06/08697.5
Wyoming (B)05/10/08162.5
Nebraska 05/13/08332.5
West Virginia (B)05/13/08122.5
Kentucky 05/20/08455
Oregon 05/20/08302.5I think OR will move their date to 2/5
Idaho 05/27/08322.5
Montana 06/03/08252.5
New Mexico 06/03/08322.5
South Dakota 06/03/08272.5

Note: the states Vote Smart (I believe) has incorrect dates for include: Wyoming, South Carolina, Maine, Minnesota, West Virginia, Washington, DC, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. I don't really fault them for having in correct dates though ... changing your primary date is what all the "cool states" are doing these days, and it's hard to keep up.

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