(Republican) '08 Primary Schedule

I've been working on coming up with some '08 primary predictions and as part of that wanted to figure out exactly when the different states where holding their primaries. I had a heck of a time trying to figure that out.

I started with Vote Smart's list but it was very outdated. Wikipedia's list was pretty good though I wanted have a secondary source. For that secondary source I used Green Paper's notes and then the National Conference of State Legislature's list. In the couple spots where it appeared there may have been discrepancies I tried to resolve them by searching the news, and ultimately I believe Wikipedia's list was just about fully accurate.

Anyway, in case anyone else is looking for this information, I'm publishing it here. And, FYI, is likely to change between now and January '08.

Also, my list has an extra column called "Influence". This is just an index I put together balancing # of delegates with how early the state votes. It's certainly not anything official, but it is helpful for me in determining the states for which I want to bother making predictions. Just for reference, there are 500 "influence points" total.

Finally, one last important note - a bunch of states are in the list twice. That's because they are deciding how to allocate a subset of their delegates on two different dates. (Trying to figure out the process by which the votes actually turn into delegate allocations is also a heck of a matter to try to figure out... [and a matter I leave as an exercise for the reader. :D]).

In any event, here are the current (tentative) dates for Republican '08 Presidential Primaries:

Early States

State	Date	Delegates	Influence	Notes
Wyoming (A)	01/05/08	12	10	I think WY will ultimately go to being no earlier than 1/22. Curiously, the parties seem more upset with FL and SC than Wyoming
Iowa	01/14/08	41	30	I think IA may move earlier if WY does not move later
Nevada	01/19/08	34	10
South Carolina	01/19/08	47	25	Parties want SC to move to a later date
New Hampshire	01/22/08	24	15	NH will likely move earlier if other states don't move later
Florida	01/29/08	114	35	Parties want FL to move to a later date
Maine	02/02/08	21	10

Super Duper Tuesday

State	Date	Delegates	Influence
Alabama	02/05/08	48	5
Alaska	02/05/08	29	5
Arizona	02/05/08	53	10
Arkansas	02/05/08	34	5
California	02/05/08	173	45
Colorado	02/05/08	46	10
Connecticut	02/05/08	30	5
Delaware	02/05/08	18	2.5
Georgia	02/05/08	72	15
Illinois	02/05/08	70	15
Minnesota	02/05/08	41	5
Missouri	02/05/08	58	10
New Jersey	02/05/08	52	10
New York	02/05/08	101	25
North Dakota	02/05/08	26	5
Oklahoma	02/05/08	42	5
Tennessee	02/05/08	55	10
Utah	02/05/08	36	5
West Virginia (A)	02/05/08	18	2.5

The Rest

State	Date	Delegates	Influence	Notes
Louisiana	02/09/08	46	10
Washington (A)	02/09/08	18	5
District of Columbia	02/12/08	19	5
Maryland	02/12/08	37	5
Virginia	02/12/08	63	12.5
Washington (B)	02/19/08	19	5
Wisconsin	02/19/08	40	10
Michigan	02/26/08	61	10
Hawaii	03/02/08	20	5
Massachusetts	03/04/08	43	5
Ohio	03/04/08	88	15
Rhode island	03/04/08	20	2.5
Texas	03/04/08	140	25
Vermont	03/04/08	17	2.5
Mississippi	03/11/08	38	5
Kansas	04/01/08	39	5
Pennsylvania	04/22/08	74	10	I think PA will move their date to 2/12
Indiana	05/06/08	57	5
North Carolina	05/06/08	69	7.5
Wyoming (B)	05/10/08	16	2.5
Nebraska	05/13/08	33	2.5
West Virginia (B)	05/13/08	12	2.5
Kentucky	05/20/08	45	5
Oregon	05/20/08	30	2.5	I think OR will move their date to 2/5
Idaho	05/27/08	32	2.5
Montana	06/03/08	25	2.5
New Mexico	06/03/08	32	2.5
South Dakota	06/03/08	27	2.5

Note: the states Vote Smart (I believe) has incorrect dates for include: Wyoming, South Carolina, Maine, Minnesota, West Virginia, Washington, DC, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. I don't really fault them for having in correct dates though ... changing your primary date is what all the "cool states" are doing these days, and it's hard to keep up.