Monday, September 03, 2007

GOP Primary Predictions - Results

You can find my "methodology"/approach to coming up with these results in my previous post.

Predicted GOP Primary Results

Iowa (1/14/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 37 33
Thompson 17 13
Giuliani 10
McCain 3
Huckabee 12

South Carolina (1/19/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 8
Thompson 36 45
Giuliani 26 22
McCain 10
Huckabee 10

New Hampshire (1/22/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 39 10
Thompson 20 3
Giuliani 22 4
McCain 4
Huckabee 7

Delegate total after these three: Romney: 43, Thompson: 61; Giuliani: 22.

After failing to gain delegates in IA, SC, or NH, McCain and Huckabee will drop out.

Note: SC most likely will change it's date. If it doesn't, Romney is in a lot of trouble though. He's focused a lot on IA and NH, both of which he will likely win, but a SC "hiccup" in between will destroy any momentum he would get from IA and NH wins.

Florida (1/29/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 18 13
Thompson 41 57
Giuliani 39 52

Heading into Super Tuesday, Romney is now officially in a lot of trouble. The big and non-southern states coming up are also likely going to give Rudy a big bump at Thompson's expense.

Delegate total after four: Romney: 56, Thompson: 118; Giuliani: 74.

Georgia (2/05/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 22 16
Thompson 52 85
Giuliani 20 13

Illinois (2/05/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 12
Thompson 38 28
Giuliani 46 42

Half way through the selected Super Tuesday states...

Delegate total after six: Romney: 72, Thompson: 231; Giuliani: 129.

Now Rudy-territory's turn...

New York (2/05/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 14
Thompson 26 19
Giuliani 53 82

California (2/05/08)
Candidate % of the vote # of delegates
Romney 18 16
Thompson 29 36
Giuliani 49 121

Delegate total after six: Romney: 88, Thompson: 286; Giuliani: 332.

From the states I picked, Rudy comes away with roughly a 15% lead. Unfortunately, I think if I had brought in the full array of Super-Tuesday-and-before states, things get more bleak for Thompson. Utah will most certainly go to Romney, but of the remainder, I think they'll break down as follows (# of delegates follows the state name):

Wyoming: 12
Alabama: 39
Alaska: 29
Arkansas: 34
North Dakota: 26
Tennessee: 55
Oklahoma: 42

Nevada: 34
Maine: 21
Arizona: 53
Colorado: 46
Connecticut: 30
Delaware: 18
Minnesota: 41
Missouri: 58
New Jersey: 52
West Virginia: 18

For the sake of simplicity, if you give the full number of delegates to the candidate, we have a grand total between Rudy and Fred of Thompson: 523; Giuliani: 703.

That doesn't look too good, but it may be close enough to keep Fred in the race through March 4th when I think Thompson could probably close the gap by picking up Ohio and Texas. If that happens, we'd be looking at a race through April or May though which could complicate things for Republicans in the general election.

The good news is Thompson is much more likely to get a bump in the weeks ahead than Giuliani, if Thompson pulls off the whole going-official thing well. My predictions also don't really factor in what should be an extra Thompson-bump heading into Super Tuesday with Thompson then in the lead (and Giuliani really almost without any delegates to speak of).

Right now it looks to me like Rudy certainly has the upper hand, but it's certainly not out of reach for Fred. Mitt, I think, is in a fair bit of trouble unless NH and IA can propel him ahead. I think Fred's likely taking of the immediately following (or in-between) Southern states are going to screw that up for Mitt though.

Finally, even in recent end-of-August polls, Huckabee can't break 5% in the early states. I think he's basically failed to capitalize on his brief success in the straw poll. And McCain is in a tailspin in all the graphs and I full expect him to wind up in the 3-10% level Huckabee is in by the time January is here.


Duffy Moon said...

Wow. Thanks for the tremendous amount of work you put into this breakdown. I'd rather see a different result, too, but...
I'm a Thompson/Palin supporter as well, and I refuse to give up hope!
Keep up the good work.

kazoolist said...

Thanks. It did turn into a task a bit larger than I initially anticipated. (So many states ... so little time!)

It does show Fred is quite competetive with Rudy though. Hopefully Fred's announcement tomorrow will give him a boost!

Anonymous said...

I think you way over estimate the draw Fred will have in Illnois and Florida...especially Florida.

Romney is campaigning heavily early which in the long run hurts Fred. If Fred could win IA NH it would go a long way to helping him beat Guiliani. Romney I agree will fall apart, but perhaps earlier then most think. In IA, people will see Romney for who he is, a Republican John Kerry, causing him to finish below expectations and out of the race +/- Super Tuesday.

Your assumption that Gingrich supporters will transfer to Fred is naive. As you already know, I don't believe Fred is going to "show up" and will remain too unpolished and a question mark for voters to pull the lever. Don't be surprised if Fred stumbles that people will jump to Huckabee if he can find some more momentum. If he can't, those voters will temporarily become Romney/undecided. Below average expectations for Romney will shift them again towards no one, increasing Guilani's lead.

In the end, the Gingrich/McCann/Unsure voters who hate Guiliani's social stances will hold their noses and pull his lever as they believe its the best shot to beat Hillary.


Guiliani the nominee, McCann offered VP and rejects, Huckabee becomes VP.