GOP Primary Predictions - Results

You can find my "methodology"/approach to coming up with these results in my previous post.

Predicted GOP Primary Results

Iowa (1/14/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	37	33
Thompson	17	13
Giuliani	10
McCain	3
Huckabee	12

South Carolina (1/19/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	8
Thompson	36	45
Giuliani	26	22
McCain	10
Huckabee	10

New Hampshire (1/22/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	39	10
Thompson	20	3
Giuliani	22	4
McCain	4
Huckabee	7

Delegate total after these three: Romney: 43, Thompson: 61; Giuliani: 22.

After failing to gain delegates in IA, SC, or NH, McCain and Huckabee will drop out.

Note: SC most likely will change it's date. If it doesn't, Romney is in a lot of trouble though. He's focused a lot on IA and NH, both of which he will likely win, but a SC "hiccup" in between will destroy any momentum he would get from IA and NH wins.

Florida (1/29/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	18	13
Thompson	41	57
Giuliani	39	52

Heading into Super Tuesday, Romney is now officially in a lot of trouble. The big and non-southern states coming up are also likely going to give Rudy a big bump at Thompson's expense.

Delegate total after four: Romney: 56, Thompson: 118; Giuliani: 74.

Georgia (2/05/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	22	16
Thompson	52	85
Giuliani	20	13

Illinois (2/05/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	12
Thompson	38	28
Giuliani	46	42

Half way through the selected Super Tuesday states...

Delegate total after six: Romney: 72, Thompson: 231; Giuliani: 129.

Now Rudy-territory's turn...

New York (2/05/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	14
Thompson	26	19
Giuliani	53	82

California (2/05/08)

Candidate	% of the vote	# of delegates
Romney	18	16
Thompson	29	36
Giuliani	49	121

Delegate total after six: Romney: 88, Thompson: 286; Giuliani: 332.

From the states I picked, Rudy comes away with roughly a 15% lead. Unfortunately, I think if I had brought in the full array of Super-Tuesday-and-before states, things get more bleak for Thompson. Utah will most certainly go to Romney, but of the remainder, I think they'll break down as follows (# of delegates follows the state name):

Thomspon
Wyoming: 12
Alabama: 39
Alaska: 29
Arkansas: 34
North Dakota: 26
Tennessee: 55
Oklahoma: 42

Giuliani
Nevada: 34
Maine: 21
Arizona: 53
Colorado: 46
Connecticut: 30
Delaware: 18
Minnesota: 41
Missouri: 58
New Jersey: 52
West Virginia: 18

For the sake of simplicity, if you give the full number of delegates to the candidate, we have a grand total between Rudy and Fred of Thompson: 523; Giuliani: 703.

That doesn't look too good, but it may be close enough to keep Fred in the race through March 4th when I think Thompson could probably close the gap by picking up Ohio and Texas. If that happens, we'd be looking at a race through April or May though which could complicate things for Republicans in the general election.

The good news is Thompson is much more likely to get a bump in the weeks ahead than Giuliani, if Thompson pulls off the whole going-official thing well. My predictions also don't really factor in what should be an extra Thompson-bump heading into Super Tuesday with Thompson then in the lead (and Giuliani really almost without any delegates to speak of).

Right now it looks to me like Rudy certainly has the upper hand, but it's certainly not out of reach for Fred. Mitt, I think, is in a fair bit of trouble unless NH and IA can propel him ahead. I think Fred's likely taking of the immediately following (or in-between) Southern states are going to screw that up for Mitt though.

Finally, even in recent end-of-August polls, Huckabee can't break 5% in the early states. I think he's basically failed to capitalize on his brief success in the straw poll. And McCain is in a tailspin in all the graphs and I full expect him to wind up in the 3-10% level Huckabee is in by the time January is here.